Spring Fundraiser coming up this Friday April 13 at Tsaina Lodge. Door prizes! Silent auction!
Acoustic Avalanche and Jer Ber playing music.
Above 2,500ft Low
1,800 to 2,500ft Low
Below 1,800ft Low
Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?
|Wednesday||Thursday||Friday & Saturday|
Elevation: Below 4000′
Aspect: SE – S – SW
Terrain: Southerly facing terrain >25 degrees exposed to sun
Sensitivity: Non-reactive – Responsive as sun and warmer temperatures dominate
Likelihood (Human Triggered): Possible
Danger Trend: Increasing with solar input and warmer temperatures
Forecaster Confidence: Good
Elevation: Above 3500′
Aspect: Lee of ridges, gullies, ridge tops
Terrain: Above 35< and exposed to wind
Sensitivity: Stubborn – Responsive
Likelihood (Human Triggered): Possible
Danger Trend: Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Poor
AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor
LIST OF AVALANCHE PROBLEMS <here>
SNOWPACK DISCUSSION: Thompson Pass has daytime temperatures going above freezing at the mountain tops. Daytime warming is trapped by clouds with the greenhouse effect rapidly warming the snowpack.
These are the warmest days of the winter. The spring shed cycle is here. Don’t be in avalanche terrain when the daytime avalanches occur. Signs of wet snow avalanches include observations of new avalanches and seeing cornices and rocks fall. If you punch through to ground when on slushy snow and/ or the entire snowpack consists of slushy snow, question what’s holding it to the slope.
Most snow surface conditions are variable and range from wind scoured pencil hard sastrugi, sun effected melt/freeze, to decomposing unconsolidated particles. Snow depths generally range from 30-300cm.
Test pits over the last three weeks have shown no signs of propagation.
See excellent observations <here>. We thank contributors.
Recent Avalanche Activity
No new observations.
|WEATHER FORECAST for NEXT 24 HRS at 3,000 ft:|
|Temperature Forecast (Min/Max *F):||30 / 37|
|Ridgetop Wind Forecast (direction/mph):||E / 15|
|WIND & TEMPERATURE
PAST 24 hours
|Ferry Terminal||Thompson Pass|
|Average Wind Speed (mph) / Direction||2 / VAR||20 / E|
|Max Wind Gust (mph) / Direction||8 / E||30 / E|
|Temperature Min / Max (*F)||37 / 47||25 / 35|
Weather Forecast: One snowflake Wednesday. Clearing skies Thursday. Cloud cover again Friday and into the weekend with daytime temperatures at Thompson Pass into the 40’s F.
Additional Info & Media
|SNOW HISTORY:||Valdez 4/11 AM||Thompson Pass 4/11 AM|
|24 Hour Snow / Water Equiv.||0”/ 0.0″||0″ / 0.0″|
|Storm Snow /Water Equiv. (3/15-19)||19” / 0.41″||40″ / 1.5″|
|Current Snow Depth||25″||64″|
|April Snow / Water Equiv.||0″ / 0″||0″ / 0″|
|Total Winter Snowfall / Water Equiv.||132.59″ / 27.2”||372″ / 36.6″|
|Snowload in Valdez||53 lbs/sq. ft.|
|SNOW DEPTH & WATER SURVEY (3/4/2018)||Depth||Snow Water Equivalent|
|Milepost 2.5 Valdez||32.2″||9″|
|Milepost 29 Worthington Flats||62.4″||21.2″|
|Milepost 37 Tsaina River bridge||58.4″||14.2″|
|This survey is done the first week of each month.|
- Northeast Prince William Sound NWS Weather Forecast
- Middleton Island Radar for Valdez area
- GOES Alaska water vapor satellite loop
- NOAA NWS Recreational spot forecast for Thompson Pass
- Thompson Pass MP 25.7 RWIS weather station 2740′ (Mesowest)
- Valdez Marine Ferry Terminal weather station sea level
- Nicks Happy Valley above MP 30 weather station 4200′ (scroll to Nicks Valley)
- Upper Tsaina River Snotel near MP 32 1750′
- Sugarloaf Snotel 551′
- Above Valdez Glacier Cryosphere program weather station 6600′ <map here>
- Valdez Blueberry Weather Plot observations (scroll to bottom: Valdez City)
- More Mountain Weather resources for Alaska
- GFS 16 Day Model for Valdez
- Model Average Meteogram for Valdez
SNOW CLIMATE ZONES:
- Maritime (Coastal) – from the Port of Valdez to Thompson Pass, all waters flowing into Valdez Arm and everything south of Marshall Pass.
- Inter-mountain (Transitional) – between Thompson Pass and Rendezvous Lodge.
- Continental (Interior) – the dry north side of the Chugach (north of 46 Mile, including the Tonsina River).
Photo of Thompson Pass
Interactive Map of Valdez Forecast Areas w/ Many Resource Layers (Trevor Grams)
NEWS: Our region is “one of the snowiest places on earth” – Serendipity / Rendezvous snowfall record set in 1963 <here>.
Free smart phone avalanche forecasts at: http://www.