Issued: Mon, Dec 04, 2017 at 8AM

Expires: Mon, Dec 04, 2017

We will be providing an AIARE Avalanche Level 1 Class this winter in Haines, February 23-25, 2018

More info and signup here.

Above 2,500ft Considerable

1,500 to 2,500ft Considerable

Below 1,500ft Considerable

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

Problem #1: Storm Snow

Around 1-6″ of  moist upside-down new snow fell last night in this zone, with a strong warming trend. South winds are strong, heavily loading North-ish aspects. The new snow is sitting atop weak low-density snow from a few days ago. Human-triggered avalanches are likely on slopes steeper than 30 degrees, especially areas with fresh wind loading. The new/old snow interface will be a likely sliding surface.

Problem #2: Deep Slab

The mid-pack has settled nicely, but beneath it lurks a hidden danger. There is a persistent layer of 3-5mm depth hoar at the ground. The likelihood of triggering this weak layer will depend on how deep the snowpack is in a given location. Thin or rocky areas may act as trigger points. Remote triggering is possible and this weak layer is present on nearly all slopes. Any failures this deep will propagate widely with very high consequences. A few natural avalanches may break down to the ground as well, especially on wind-loaded North aspects. 

Recent Avalanche Activity

SS-AR-D2-R3-S | A snowboarder-triggered D2, Nadahini-area, 10-28-2017

October 28th: First rider-triggered slide reported from the peak north of Nadahini (“Sunny Bunny”). D2 soft slab ran in storm snow from Oct 26-27. Nobody caught or injured. [ SS-AR-D2-R3-S ] South aspect @ 6,200ft.

Small – Moderate natural avalanche activity is occurring during/after storms. So far it has been mostly loose-snow slides, with a few slab avalanches as well.

Recent Weather

It’s going to be a warm week. Snow levels will be around 2000ft Monday, and slowly rise through the week, perhaps reaching 4000ft Thursday. Another shot of precipitation will hit on Tuesday, and possibly on Thursday as well.

 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline
27″ 2″ / 1.00* 3″ / 1.10* 2000  mod, S  4″ / 0.30 *
Flower Mountain @ treeline
 20″  1″ / 0.10  1″ / 0.10 1800 mod, S  4″ / 0.30 *
Chilkat Pass @ 3,500ft
 12″ * 1″ / 0.10 * 1″ / 0.10 * 1800 mod, S  2″ / 0.15 *

( *star means meteorological estimate )

Additional Info & Media

A few notes:

  • We had an extremely dry, cold early-season. Total precipitation October 1st – November 28th was around 30% of normal. Snow depths are between 45-130cm in most areas.  Variability is high due to persistent dry, windy conditions.
  • Temperatures hovered around 0 – 15°F for almost all of November. This has caused faceting of the thin snowpack and built up 3-5mm depth hoar at the ground in all zones. This will be a weak base to hold up future heavy snows. Keep this in mind as snow depths increase. This will likely turn into a deep-persistent slab problem.

Start the season with fresh batteries in your beacon, and practice with your beacon, shovel, and probe.

If you get out on the snow, send in your observations!

Posted in Chilkat Pass Forecasts.
Erik Stevens

Forecaster: Erik Stevens